The question is whether the clocks allow enough time for two deeply mistrustful sides to get there, and whether the surface calm holds long enough for the paddling to produce something before the ceasefire ends on April 22, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
'So far our production is not affected. But every day the situation prolongs, it does bring risks in terms of shipments getting delayed.'
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
'Without ground troops the US will not be able to oust the Iranian Islamic regime. Political change does not happen just by using bombs or planes.'
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
A spokesperson for the Central Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters said that Iran's armed forces are prepared to intensify their response if aggression continues.
The Indian embassy in Tehran has earlier stated that it is facilitating the safe movement of nationals who wish to leave Iran.
This weekend, Donald Trump has begun to say the quiet part out loud -- that he wants to take control of Iran's oil, a formulation more in line with his robber-baron style of international relations.
Nobody takes Pakistan seriously and therefore Pakistan's sudden mediating with almost immediate results of a ceasefire seems more contrived than real, points out Vice Admiral Biswajit Dasgupta (retd).
The question is no longer whether the war will expand. It has. The next few days will tell us whether the war stabilises around Hormuz or whether the Strait itself becomes the trigger for a far larger rupture. What to watch for over the next 48 hours is simple: Any move by the US toward direct naval control of the Strait; any credible Iranian attempt to disrupt or mine shipping lanes and, critically, whether energy infrastructure in the Gulf continues to be targeted.If those lines are crossed in tandem, the war will no longer be containable within the region.
Trump may strike. He may announce productive talks and extend again. He may do both at the same time. Iran will not open the Strait on someone else's terms, so no matter what happens, that problem will remain unsolved. And the IRGC will still be collecting its $2 million toll from every ship bold enough to ask permission to pass.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
'American stature has been reduced because they have not been able to achieve their aims.'
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The big question is whether Trump is any longer in command of the situation. For all practical purposes, the war seems set to cascade as the US is preparing for a potential ground operation in Iran and threatens to destroy 'bridges next, then electric power plants', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Amid escalating tensions, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh declares Iran's unwavering commitment to a 'heroic nationalist defence' against perceived American and Israeli aggression, vowing to resist what he calls an 'invasion' to the very end.
The threat of wars hovers over the negotiations in Oman, but the good part is that Trump called the talks to be 'very good' and Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian responded that they 'constitute a step forward', points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
'The military measures that are adopted have to be carefully calibrated to ensure that escalation can be controlled short of all out war. The aim of Indian retaliation should not be to target the people of Pakistan but to punish the perpetrators and supporters of terrorism, that is the Pakistan army, the ISI and the terrorist organisations like Lashkar and Jaish.'
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Iran has rejected United States allegations that it is preparing attacks on American facilities, alleging that Washington, DC is attempting to escalate tensions in West Asia, Iranian state broadcaster Press TV reported.
India is closely monitoring the situation in West Asia and working to ensure the safety of its citizens stranded in the region. Over 52,000 Indians have returned home following the partial opening of airspace.
India possesses approximately 100 million barrels of commercial crude oil stocks, capable of covering 40-45 days of its requirements if flows through the Strait of Hormuz are disrupted, according to Kpler.
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Trump also called upon China, France, and Japan, among others, to send ships to the Strait of Hormuz.
For weeks, the war skirted the edge of catastrophe without tipping over. Missiles flew, there was much destruction, commanders were assassinated, cities across the Gulf and even in Israel struggled to absorb the shock. But one line held: Energy infrastructure, the arteries of the global economy, remained largely untouched. That is no longer true. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
What we are watching is something different: A fog manufactured and maintained by the people who started the war, so that the question of why it was started never has to be answered, observes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the war in the Middle East.
Greenland faces escalating tensions following US President Donald Trump's controversial demand for acquisition of the Arctic island.
Danish military reinforcements arrived in Nuuk on January 18-19, 2026, as thousands of Greenlanders and Danes protested Trump's proposal.
Sri Lanka is deliberating appropriate action after a second Iranian ship sought entry to its territorial waters, following an attack on an Iranian frigate near the island nation. The government is focused on safeguarding lives and regional peace.
Responding to concerns raised by Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi in the Lok Sabha, Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri said it is the foremost priority of the government that the kitchens of over 33 crore families, especially the poor and the underprivileged, do not face any shortage of gas.
The Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) has started working on an alternate plan as serious doubts have arisen over Afghanistan's participation in an upcoming T20 Tri-Series amid military conflict between the two countries.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt noted that progress has been made in the Geneva talks with Iranian authorities, but the two nations stand 'far apart' on certain issues.
Israel has for more than two decades and several US presidencies worked to draw the United States into a full-scale war with Iran. Having finally achieved that, the last thing it wants is Trump declaring victory and going home, as he is prone to do. Ali Larijani was the figure most capable of handing Trump a negotiated exit with something to show for it. Without Larijani, the road to an exit gets considerably narrower. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Underlining that United States President Barack Obama is committed to using all instruments of national power to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, the ruling Democratic Party has warned that the preferred diplomatic option is not going to remain open for an indefinite period.
The chairman of maritime company Safesea Group has described the attack on the US-owned crude oil tanker Safesea Vishnu, which resulted in the death of an Indian crew member, as "deliberate and calculated". He emphasised the need for governments to ensure the safety of commercial shipping lanes and seafarers.
Trump's remarks came amid heightened US messaging about the Iran situation and a series of White House statements indicating that multiple options remain under review.
He added that current measures, including an oil quarantine and large naval deployments, are aimed at pressuring the Venezuelan regime.
By appearing to privilege ideological affinity over strategic balance, India risks eroding the trust painstakingly built across West Asia. Once the perception takes hold that India's friendship is conditional and transactional, rebuilding credibility will be difficult, warns Amberish K Diwanji.
In the Indo-Pacific's new era -- where perception shapes reality faster than treaties -- the real entrapment is not of China or the United States. It is the test Japan has set for itself -- and whether partners like India, acting as balancers rather than accelerants, can help ensure that the story ends in stability, points out Varun Arya.
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